Fusion vs AI vs GTI — Analysis & Comparison

Overview

Data: forecast.json (AI), gti.json (GTI), fronius.json (Actual), optional fusion_model_meta.json (learned blend). Uses the same files as fusion.html.

Median & Tails (Absolute Error)

Lower is better. Tails (P90 / P95) indicate worst-day behavior; smaller tails = safer forecasts.

Performance by Regime

Heuristic: clear = Actual ≥ 85% of GTI, overcast = Actual ≤ 50% of GTI, otherwise mixed.

Regime	Days	AI Avg AE	GTI Avg AE	Fusion Avg AE	Best (count)

Signed Error Over Time

Signed error = Forecast − Actual (kWh). Above zero means overestimation.

Calibration: Actual vs Prediction

Daily Details

Date	Actual (kWh)	AI (kWh)	GTI (kWh)	Fusion (kWh)	AI Error	GTI Error	Fusion Error	Closer	Error Margin (%)