Fusion Forecast vs AI vs GTI — Analysis & Comparison

Data: forecast.json (AI), gti.json (GTI), fronius.json (Actual), optional fusion_model_meta.json (learned blend).

Lower is better. Tails (P90 / P95) indicate worst-day behavior; smaller tails = safer forecasts. Computed over all days (unaffected by the filters above).

Heuristic: clear = Actual ≥ 85% of GTI, overcast = Actual ≤ 50% of GTI, otherwise mixed. Computed over all days (unaffected by the filters above).

Signed error = Forecast − Actual (kWh). Above zero means overestimation. Computed over all days (unaffected by the filters above).