Capture price, market value · Glossary

Definition and calculation

Capture price, usually called Marktwert (market value) in German, refers to the average electricity price that a generation plant or generation technology achieves with its actual feed-in profile. For each market time unit, the quantity of electricity generated is multiplied by the respective exchange price. The results are added up and divided by the total generation volume of the period. The usual units are euros per megawatt hour or, in the German EEG, cents per kilowatt hour (1 ct/kWh corresponds to 10 €/MWh). The market value is therefore not a simple average price but a volume-weighted price: hours or quarter-hours with high feed-in count more heavily than periods with low feed-in.

A simple example: In one hour, a plant generates 10 MWh at 20 €/MWh, and in another hour 2 MWh at 120 €/MWh. The simple average of the two prices is 70 €/MWh. The capture price, by contrast, is (10 × 20 + 2 × 120) / 12, i.e. about 36.7 €/MWh. The plant sold most of its electricity in the cheap hour.

This weighting makes the concept particularly important for wind energy and photovoltaics. Both technologies generate electricity not according to a freely selectable schedule but depending on weather, time of day and season. Photovoltaics generates mainly during the day and, in Germany, produces a lot of electricity above all in the summer half-year. Wind energy often feeds in during large-scale weather conditions in which many wind farms deliver high output at the same time. The market value shows which prices applied precisely during these generation periods. It can therefore lie well above or below the annual average of the exchange electricity price.

Distinction from exchange price, market value factor and levelised cost of electricity

The capture price must be distinguished from the simple exchange price. The exchange price, for example on the day-ahead market, applies to a specific delivery period. In the European coupled day-ahead auction, this has been the quarter-hour since October 2025; before that it was the hour. The market value, by contrast, combines many delivery periods and relates them to a specific feed-in profile. Two plants in the same market area see the same exchange prices but can achieve different market values if they feed in at different times. A south-facing photovoltaic plant, an east-west plant, a coastal wind farm and an inland wind farm have different profiles and thus different revenue prospects, even if their annual electricity volume is similar.

Closely related is the market value factor. It sets the market value of a technology in relation to the average exchange electricity price in the same period. A factor of 0.8 means that the technology achieved on average 80 percent of the general average price. A value above 1 means that it feeds in predominantly at more expensive times. An example from the publications of the transmission system operators: In October 2026, the average spot market price was around 16.93 ct/kWh, the solar market value 13.39 ct/kWh, the onshore wind market value 12.20 ct/kWh and the offshore wind market value 14.56 ct/kWh. This yields calculated factors of about 0.79, 0.72 and 0.86. Such monthly values fluctuate strongly and cannot simply be transferred to a whole year. The market value factor does not replace a revenue calculation, because the absolute price level, support rules, hedging transactions and marketing costs also have an effect.

The market value is often confused with the levelised cost of electricity. Levelised cost of electricity indicates the costs incurred per megawatt hour generated over the lifetime of a plant. The market value indicates the revenues that a megawatt hour fed in can achieve on the market. A technology can have low levelised costs of electricity and still come under economic pressure if its market value falls sharply. Conversely, a more expensive technology can be attractive if it reliably delivers at times of high prices. For investments, what counts is therefore the interplay of costs, revenue profile, risks and hedging options, not a single indicator.

Cannibalisation effect and system context

The most important connection is the cannibalisation effect. When many plants with a similar profile feed in at the same time, supply rises in exactly the same market periods. For photovoltaics this concerns above all sunny midday hours, for wind energy windy weather conditions. With price formation according to the merit order, the price falls when additional generation with low short-run marginal costs displaces more expensive power plants. For consumers, this can make electricity cheaper at these times. For the plants that trigger the price decline themselves, however, the achievable market value falls. A growing generation volume can therefore go hand in hand with falling revenues per megawatt hour.

No simple conclusion about the usefulness of wind or solar power follows from this. A low market value does not mean that the electricity is worthless. It shows that the time profile of generation does not fully match the profile of demand and the available flexibility. In times of high feed-in, fossil power plants can be displaced, storage can be charged, heat pumps or electrolysers can be operated and industrial processes can be shifted. If such options are missing or are held back by market rules, grid charges, regulation or missing infrastructure, the price falls more sharply. The market value then describes less a property of the individual plant than the interplay of generation, demand, grid and market organisation.

A common mistake is to treat the market value as a fixed property of a technology. The market value of photovoltaics or wind energy depends on the degree of deployment, the power plant fleet, fuel and CO₂ prices, demand profiles, grid bottlenecks, import and export possibilities as well as controllable loads and storage. If, for example, many electric cars charge at midday, heat storage is used during solar peaks or industrial processes respond to price signals, the market value of solar power can stabilise. If, on the other hand, additional solar capacity falls predominantly into hours that are already heavily occupied, it tends to fall further.

Significance for investments and contracts

For the electricity system, the capture price is important because it shapes investment signals. Project developers, banks and electricity buyers examine whether future revenues are sufficient to finance plants. Falling market values increase the need for good site decisions, different plant profiles, long-term power supply contracts and technical flexibility. Photovoltaic plants with more morning or evening production can have different revenue profiles than plants designed only for the highest annual generation. Wind farms can differ in price if their feed-in coincides less strongly with the existing fleet of plants. Storage can raise the price achieved by shifting electricity from low-price periods to more expensive periods. However, this entails conversion losses and additional investment costs.

Outside of support schemes too, for example in power purchase agreements, the market value remains central. A long-term power supply contract must clarify whether the buyer takes over the actual generation profile ("pay as produced") or whether volumes are smoothed. It must also specify who bears price and profile risks and how deviations between forecast and actual feed-in are treated.

Market value in the German EEG

In Germany, the market value is at the same time a statutorily defined term. The transmission system operators calculate and publish it under Annex 1 to the EEG 2023 separately for onshore wind energy, offshore wind energy and solar installations. The basis is not the measurement of an individual plant but an online extrapolation of nationwide generation of the respective technology. This relies on representative reference plants and is resolved in quarter-hours. For each quarter-hour, the spot market price is weighted with this extrapolated generation volume. Curtailments by the grid operator or within the scope of direct marketing remain disregarded. For hydropower, biomass, landfill gas, sewage gas and mine gas as well as geothermal energy, by contrast, the simple mean of the spot market price applies. Monthly market values are published by the tenth working day of the following month, annual market values by the tenth working day of the following year.

With the sliding market premium, the market value is deducted from the plant's applicable value (anzulegender Wert). If the result is negative, the premium is set to zero. Which market value applies depends on the plant's vintage. For plants that entered operation before 1 January 2023 or received an award before then, the premium is in principle calculated monthly using the monthly market value. For the other, i.e. newer plants, the annual market value applies, and the premium is calculated annually. There are exceptions for certain existing plants, for example when using the delimitation option or the flat-rate option. The EEG market value is an average across all plants of a technology. A plant with a less favourable profile than the average achieves less on the market than the premium formula assumes. A plant with a more favourable profile achieves more. The operator or its direct marketer bears this profile risk.

Negative prices

Negative exchange prices arise when supply at certain times exceeds demand willing to pay. In addition, there are technical, contractual or regulatory reasons why generation is not reduced sufficiently. Negative prices depress the market value of weather-dependent generation particularly strongly if it feeds in a lot precisely then. However, they are not by themselves proof of too much renewable electricity. They can also point to low flexibility, unsuitable levy and charge structures, missing storage incentives or technical minimum outputs of conventional power plants.

Under § 51 EEG, the payment entitlement can lapse when the spot market price is negative. The conditions depend on the version of the law, the commissioning or award date and plant size. Older plants are affected only from several consecutive negative hours. For many new plants that have entered operation since 25 February 2025, the applicable value already drops to zero for every quarter-hour with a negative price. As compensation, § 51a extends the support period accordingly. For new plants, the question of whether they curtail or store electricity in times of negative prices thus gains weight.

Limits of the indicator

Market value and system value are not the same. The market value is a price measure within a specific market design. It shows which revenues arise in wholesale trading with a particular profile. However, it does not automatically capture all effects on security of supply, grid stability, regional bottlenecks, redispatch costs or avoided fuel imports. In the uniform German-Luxembourg bidding zone, electricity has the same wholesale price everywhere, even though its feed-in at different grid locations can have very different consequences for grid operation. The market value reflects this spatial dimension only to a limited extent.

The capture price thus sharpens a question that is often posed too crudely in debates about renewable energy. It is not enough to know how many megawatt hours a technology generates. For revenues, investments and integration, what counts is when these megawatt hours occur, with which other plants they coincide, which demand then responds and which rules permit the use of flexibility. The market value links technical feed-in profiles with price formation. It does not explain the entire electricity system, but it makes visible where energy volume, timing and market organisation diverge.

Sources

Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG 2023), Anlage 1 (zu § 23a) Höhe der Marktprämie — Bundesministerium der Justiz / gesetze-im-internet.de; unbekannt (konsolidierte Fassung, abgerufen am 11.11.2026). Anlage 1 Nr. 2, 3.1.2, 3.2, 3.3.2–3.3.4, 4.1.2, 4.3, 5.1–5.3
Marktwertübersicht — Übertragungsnetzbetreiber (netztransparenz.de); unbekannt (laufend aktualisiert). Marktwertübersicht; Hinweise zur Umstellung auf 15-Minuten-Spotmarktpreise
Negativer Spotmarktpreis – Übersichtstabellen — Übertragungsnetzbetreiber (netztransparenz.de); unbekannt. Einleitung, Hinweise 1 und 2
Marktwert Solar steigt im Oktober kräftig auf fast 13,4 Cent — pv magazine Deutschland; 2026-11-10. Artikeltext
Wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen des Solarspitzengesetzes auf Photovoltaik- & Windenergieanlagen an Land — Grant Thornton; 2025. Abschnitt „Was ändert sich mit dem Solarspitzengesetz konkret?“

Related glossary entries

Edited by eCMS on 11.11.2026 16:54